India's GDP growth to improve further: Ficci

Moody's lowers India's growth forecast in 2018

Backed by government spending and investment, the economy grew at a seven-quarter high of 7.7% in January-March.

At the sectoral level, the growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2017-18 for agriculture & allied sectors, industry and services sectors are estimated at 4.5 per cent, 8.8 per cent, and 7.7 per cent respectively. With a year to go for the general elections, a pick-up in growth could not have been better timed, from the Centre's point of view. "We hope that the government will continue investing in infrastructure to accelerate the pace of growth even further", he added.

The quarterly gross value added stood at 7.6 percent for the January-March 2018 period.

He emphasized that this is the development under leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister Arun Jaitley.

The faster pace of growth in the latest quarter might also strengthen expectations of an interest rate increase by the Indian central bank when it reviews monetary policy next week. We expect these risks to tilt the Reserve Bank of India's current "neutral" stance to "withdrawal of accommodation" at the 6 June policy meeting, followed by rate hikes of 25bp each in the meetings on 1 August and 4 October.

To help businesses tide over multiple taxation, his government launched a nation-wide goods and services tax but a botched implementation of the GST almost scuttled the country's growth prospects in the near term.


The annual GDP growth for 2018-19 is projected at 7.4% by the participating economist; with a minimum and maximum range of 6.9% and 7.5% respectively.

India's recovery could be threatened by higher global crude oil prices, which this month hit $80 a barrel, their highest since 2014.

For oil-importing India, the combination of a weaker currency and surging oil prices is a threat not only for the current-account deficit, but also inflation.

Higher oil prices have already pressured the rupee, near a record low last week and Asia's worst performer.

The trade related tensions will further exacerbate geopolitical strains and could lead to a slowdown in growth of world trade. He said, oil prices are decided on a formula based approach and trend for reduction in oil prices has started.

However, growth is likely to get a boost from monsoon rains, which hit the southern state of Kerala a few days earlier than normal, potentially brightening the outlook for agricultural output. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018/19.

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